FX · Emerging Markets
EM currency volatility and the dollar cycle: what the next 90 days may look like
As the Fed holds rates, emerging market currencies are caught between domestic growth stories and dollar-denominated debt pressures.
Recent Analysis
Macro · Commodities
Oil, geopolitics, and the inflation feedback loop: a structural analysis
Energy prices have become the primary variable in central bank thinking. Here's how the current supply-demand dynamic feeds into CPI expectations across G7 economies.
Equities · Sector
Consumer discretionary in a rate plateau: who wins when borrowing costs stay elevated
A sustained high-rate environment reshapes consumer behaviour in predictable ways — and the divergence between sectors is growing wider than markets currently price in.
FX · G10
Sterling under pressure: the case for further GBP weakness in H2 2026
Despite a resilient labour market, structural headwinds in the UK economy suggest the pound faces a difficult second half. We assess the key risk scenarios.
From the Archive
- The Fed pivot playbook: how markets historically respond to the first rate cut · 29/05/2026
- Japan's yield curve control exit: what it means for global bond markets · 22/05/2026
- Dollar dominance in 2026: structural challenges and the de-dollarisation narrative · 15/05/2026
- European equity premium: why the discount to US markets may persist · 08/05/2026
- Commodities super-cycle: separating signal from noise in the 2026 rally · 01/05/2026
- Central bank digital currencies and FX volatility: what traders need to know · 24/04/2026
- Geopolitical risk premium in energy markets: a quantitative framework · 17/04/2026
- Carry trade dynamics in a higher-for-longer rate environment · 10/04/2026
- EM equities vs. EM FX: diverging risk premia in the post-pandemic era · 03/04/2026
- The credit cycle and equity multiples: reading the early warning signals · 27/03/2026